New Zealand - Leo's has it dead on. Location and size makes them a remote market. The fact that there is no oil doesn't help either. Their best hope for increased importance in the world is to resurrect the Dodo and start a unique petting zoo.
China - unconstrained by US power, China eventually defeats Japan in 1952 - 800 years later, the Divine Wind blows the other way. By this point, they have pushed out the Brits (Boxer rebellion), and a second nascent industrial power. In possession of Japan's industrial base, and with the resources to expand it, they industrialize more quickly, soon dominating the world camera and electronics markets. That technology makes its way into their military, which is unconstrained from agressive action like the Japanese in our Universe. Interestingly, the next shore for them is Alaska, so the US' rise to superpowerdom doesn't happen until...oh I think I am drifting off topic.
Antarctica - frustrated by defeat in the Falklands in this scenario too, Argentina invades Antarctica, also claiming it as part of the Malvinas. Coming to the defence of the Emperor Penguin, a substantial flight of Guillemots fly non-stop and come to the defence of their kin, sending the Argentines reeling a second time.
While proving that they can defeat the Argentines in battle does not prove sentience, the world suddenly comes to respect Penguin-kind more deeply. This doesn't work out too well for the Penguins, as it provokes fear, and the world opts to crush them by polluting the atmosphere, slowly destroying their habitat. Until they are all dead. And New Zealand resurrects them as a new exhibit in their waning petting zoo.